丁一凡:美聯儲頻頻加息,如何影響全球金融市場?

丁一凡:美聯儲頻頻加息,如何影響全球金融市場?

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丁一凡(國務院發展研究中心世界發展研究所前副所長、研究員)

本站研究局全新欄目“C位觀察”專訪國務院發展研究中心世界發展研究所前副所長、研究員丁一凡,抖音搜索關注“C位觀察”官方賬號看更多

60s要點速讀:

1、美聯儲常用的升息方法,爲了讓市場不出現大的波動,一般每次提25個基點,也就是0.25個百分點。很少的情況用50個基點,就是0.5個百分點,但這次它提到了75個基點。當年還有比這個更激進的,就是沃爾克時代,現在美聯儲也在談,是不是要採取沃爾克的措施。

2、疫情暴露了一點,中國製造在國際市場上的不可或缺性非常大,比俄羅斯能源的不可或缺性還大。

3、人民幣的國際化一定會逐漸發展,這跟中國的規模、中國的需求有關係。如果我們現在像俄羅斯那麼做,要求別人買我們的Made in China製成品,都用人民幣支付的話,人民幣匯率一下就飛起來了,當年美國人就是這樣做的。

正文:

宏泰人壽RBC、淨值比 達標

01

美聯儲頻頻加息,如何影響全球金融市場?

從去年年底開始,美國CPI一直是高位運行的狀態,CPI一直在7%—8%左右,讓人想起上世紀70年代石油危機之後發生的事情。

上世紀70年代石油危機發生之後,整個西方世界,當然主要從美國開始,出現了高通脹的情況,高通脹很快就轉變成一種滯漲。過去在第二次世界大戰結束以後,整個西方經濟都相信通貨膨脹是保證經濟高增長和充分就業的條件,所以大家都沒有把通貨膨脹當回事。70年代石油危機之後,通貨膨脹確實讓他們開始擔心了,那時候通貨膨脹高企,像現在的8%一樣,很快全年通貨膨脹就會脹到10%以上。

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70年代就是這樣,很快地漲到10%以上,經濟增長開始出現問題。很多人會思考,要把價格上漲的因素考慮到自己的公司、自己的收入。投資人、企業家會考慮到他的投資成本,所以通貨膨脹一旦高企,對整個投資、消費,對所有事情都會產生巨大的破壞性。這就使得人們的消費也會下降,投資也會下降,整個經濟就基本沒有什麼增長。

所以後來他們就發明了一個詞,叫滯脹,就是經濟增長停滯,加上通貨膨脹。這個詞在70年代以前是不存在的,滯脹這個詞是70年代發明的,是把inflation和stagnation兩個單詞拼在一起,變成了Stagflation,前一半後一半一對接,生造出一個詞來,漢語也是拿兩個漢字一對接,變成了滯脹這個詞。

滯脹出來以後就很麻煩,因爲從凱恩斯主義以後,人們開始不太相信市場是萬能的,所以纔有政府幹預。但一旦出現滯脹,政府幹預的手段就非常有限,基本就沒辦法了。傳統的這些宏觀政策,對市場的反應不起作用,這種情況維持了十年左右的時間。直到80年代裡根上臺以後,美聯儲正好又換主席,那時候採用了沃爾克的方法,就是大幅提高利率,從原來非常低的利率一下提到20%,確實把通貨膨脹壓下來了,但造成了巨大的災難,經濟大幅衰退,企業大量破產。

美國就這樣痛苦地經歷了三四年,才慢慢調整過來。這次又有同樣的危險了,公佈了這麼高的CPI之後,美聯儲現在又開始討論,是不是要採取跟沃爾克當年同樣激進的手段,來抑制通貨膨脹。也就是大幅地提高利率,起碼6月份要一下子提高0.75%,也就是75個點的利率,可能還會再進一步提高。

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這麼快提高利率有一個很大的風險,就是會戳破股市上的泡沫。股市泡沫從2008年以來就比較大,2020年以來,已經變得非常可怕。2022年美國股市曾三度熔斷,那個時候市場已經非常緊張,差一點就崩了。因爲美聯儲不斷注入大量流動性,而且無限寬鬆。過去的量化寬鬆還告訴你,我一次大概買多少錢的債券,大概要釋放多少流動性出來。無限寬鬆就是你根本不知道,它願意買多少債券就買多少債券,市場沒人敢跟美聯儲博弈。

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這樣做的後果就是無限的流動性進入市場,當年次貸危機爆發以前,道瓊斯指數是13000點,那時候所有的評論家、經濟學家都說,這個不行,泡沫太大,實在太危險了。後來次貸危機一崩,2008年雷曼兄弟倒閉,道瓊斯指數跌到5000點,這麼多財富的蒸發,後來經濟嚴重衰退。

前些日子道瓊斯指數已經漲到35000點,最近通貨膨脹起來,美聯儲貨幣政策改了以後,它現在已經開始往下跌了。目前道瓊斯指數已經跌到了31000點,實際上股市已經有點草木皆兵的感覺,如果美聯儲這麼快地提高利率,這個泡沫肯定要破。這會對市場的影響會非常大。

美聯儲常用的升息方法,爲了讓市場不出現大的波動,一般每次提25個基點,也就是0.25%,一般是這樣。很少的情況用50個基點,就是0.5%,但這次它提到了75個基點。當年還有比這個更激進的,就是沃爾克時代,所以現在美聯儲也在談,是不是要採取沃爾克的措施。

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其實這也有一個互動的關係,如果通貨膨脹率已經很高了,美聯儲如果措施溫和,不敢去做,那人們的通貨膨脹預期就下不來,預期下不來,它就還會繼續往上漲。也就是說雖然提高利率了,但是對市場的影響力很低。當年沃爾克實踐就是,要採取特別激進的辦法讓市場覺得通貨膨脹一定會下去。如果大家的通貨膨脹預期改變了,那麼可能市場穩定就比較容易。

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美聯儲升息,所有的債券也會跟着升,有的國家買了很多美國債券,這個時候他們可能就還不起了。所以社交媒體上特別愛說美聯儲又開始剪羊毛了。

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現在剪羊毛不像過去那麼容易,2008年以前美國市場沒有危機。美聯儲的貨幣政策一變動,危機都發生在外面。因爲美元匯率大幅波動,一些國家的本幣大幅貶值,就會出現債務錯配,從而引起危機。美國其實是爲了自己的市場,爲了穩住自己的通貨膨脹,但是做自己的事情時,因爲美元的地位、美國資本的地位,就會造成很多外溢效應。外溢效應就是危機都在外面發生,上世紀80年代的時候是在拉美髮生,90年代是在亞洲發生,後來又在俄羅斯的債券上發生,又在歐洲發生,都是在其他地方發生的,並沒有在美國本土發生。

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但從21世紀以來,2001年美國發生了互聯網泡沫覆滅,然後是2007年、2008年,那次是海嘯式的危機,然後就是現在,我們面臨又一次危機。這些危機看起來越來越回到美國去了。危機回到美國去,事情就更大了,不像原來危機只是讓外圍國家受苦。美國自己在外圍危機中雖然也受一點損失,因爲它是投資人,美國的投資人在海外投資會有損失,但是它也會趁機去賺一點錢。在危機中,經常也會有賺錢的機會。有人專門在危機中投資,比如危機中買空賣空也會賺錢,當年索羅斯就是在歐洲的貨幣市場上,靠賣空英鎊賺了很多錢。

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還有一種就是乘虛而入。別人危機了以後,你去抄底,拿最便宜的價格把人家的資產都買下來,因爲你有美元,你可以有這種好處。但現在因爲美國也可能危機了,所以美國企業或者那些美國的金融要再要這麼幹就不那麼容易了。因爲美元的資產和美元的價格在下降,美元的匯率下降了,那他跑到中國來買東西,美元比人民幣貶值得還快,他要在中國買東西就沒那麼容易了,就會變得更貴。所以現在這個勢頭還很難說未來一定會朝着某個方面發展,但對美國是不利的。

現在有錢的金融公司,都在買什麼(來源:本站研究局)

02

美聯儲加息,如何影響中國外貿?

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目前美聯儲加息對中國外貿的影響,現在還不會太大,未來如果經濟蕭條,影響肯定會特別大。因爲外部需求會下降,但暫時還沒有這樣的影響。

現在因爲美國市場鶴唳風聲,所以美元顯得有點岌岌可危了,人民幣貶值的壓力反而小一點。前一陣人民幣貶值的壓力非常大,但現在美國市場如果危機的話,那美元下一步就會貶值,現在是一個波動很大的過程。但總體上來講,人民幣貶值的壓力反而下降了。

對中國出口一般不會有太大影響,前兩年人民幣一直升值,但我們的出口一直在增長。疫情暴露了一點,中國製造在國際市場上的不可或缺性非常大,比俄羅斯能源的不可或缺性還大。其他國家都沒法兒生產,但他們還有生活需求,甚至還有防疫的需求,這個時候只有中國能生產。中國出口在2020年到2021年是大幅增長的。

當然增長的東西有很多跟疫情相關,比如口罩、防護服,還有前一陣我們的呼吸機,這些都是原來沒有的市場。除了防疫用品外,基本商品的出口也在增長,這說明什麼?說明中國的競爭力,中國產品的競爭力不是那麼容易被替代的。

過去我們擔心,我們的貨幣太堅挺了,可能出口競爭力會下降。別人可以替代,比如越南產的東西比中國便宜了,那麼他們是不是就拿越南代替中國了?這種可替代的東西特別少,現在只是紡織品、大衆成衣等。現在大衆成衣也不一樣,因爲中國現在有自己品牌的成衣銷路反而特別好,所以現在的情況也不是我們想象的那樣了。過去我們特別擔心的事情不能說完全沒有,有,但是總體來講,它對中國外貿出口的總量影響不大。

03

未來人民幣國際化會發展很快

人民幣的國際化一定會逐漸發展,這是跟中國的規模、中國的需求有關係。當年工業代時,英國最先工業化,成爲最大的“世界工廠”,英鎊就成爲全世界的霸權貨幣,大家都用英鎊。後來美國超過英國,美國變成“世界工廠”,美國給全世界提供產品了,美元慢慢替換了英鎊。當然中間這個過程不會那麼順利,因爲還會有一些慣性,但當年英鎊被美元代替後,很大程度上是因爲英鎊變得不穩定了,英鎊跟黃金脫鉤,英鎊的購買力也成了問題,最後美元比英鎊堅挺了,就替換了英鎊。

現在同樣,人民幣和美元的關係,和中國經濟、美國經濟成正比。我們的經濟變得越來越強大,我們是“世界工廠”,製造能力越來越強大。看經濟不能只看GDP,還要看製造能力。現在爲什麼中國人民幣地位和中國製造能力還不成正比,跟當年的美國、英國不一樣?因爲當年美國英國崛起的時候,你要去買美國貨去買英國貨,你要付美元、付英鎊。如果我們現在像俄羅斯那麼做,要求別人買我們的Made in China製成品,都用人民幣支付的話,人民幣匯率一下就漲起來了。當年美國人就是這樣要求的,當年的中國造不了美國的東西,我要從美國買美國造的東西,那我就得有美元,沒有美元美國人不賣給我,就造成了美元的需求。

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其實這個事在未來會有變化的,甚至現在正在變化。比如我們現在鼓勵我們的貿易伙伴使用人民幣,如果他使用人民幣,我就給他打點折扣,這樣就會有越來越多的人使用人民幣來購買。因爲我覺得美元不穩定了,我現在出口你給我支付美元,我手裡拿一堆美元,將來美元貶值了怎麼辦?我不就慘了,所以我會要求我的貿易伙伴,買我東西的人,儘量拿人民幣支付。

現在中國在貿易市場上佔的份額比美國大多了,而且我們的工業製造業產出,去年是美國的2.5倍。我們的工業製造能力也比美國高了,我可以給別人提供各種各樣的工業製成品。這樣的話你去鼓勵別人用人民幣,別人有時候沒什麼選擇,就像這一次俄羅斯要求別人拿盧布支付能源,已經證明了,如果你真這麼幹,別人可能也別無選擇,只能用你的貨幣。

如果別人只用你的貨幣的話,你的貨幣突然就會國際化。但是我們是不是做好了準備呢?我們似乎沒有做好這個準備,但是隨着我們跟美國的各種摩擦增加,如果下一步繼續升級,我覺得中國會學俄羅斯那樣去要求的。那樣的話,形勢可能會出現戲劇性轉變。換句話說,人民幣國際化這件事,可能不是慢慢形成的,有可能會在某一個點上出現較大的變化。

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現在大家都在說,新佈雷頓森林體系到底是一個什麼樣的體系?其實還沒有人能說得清楚。所謂新佈雷頓森林體系,就是想打造一個各種貨幣之間比較穩定、不完全由市場來決定的這麼一種關係。

因爲在所謂後佈雷頓森林體系以後,大家搞過好幾次努力,都想去穩定國際貨幣之間的關係,什麼牙買加體系,都做過試驗,但是基本上都無疾而終,沒有執行下去。現在我們想以“一帶一路”這種方式來推行新的經濟全球化,我們如果要推動新的經濟全球化,就一定需要比較穩定的貨幣制度。因爲只有比較穩定的貨幣制度,你的投資貿易纔會有大幅的增長,因爲可以排除潛在的匯率風險。

如果匯率的風險特別高,人們就不太敢投資。因爲投了資以後,本來是特別賺錢的一筆買賣,如果等到賺完錢以後,貨幣貶值貶得一塌糊塗,那你不就虧了嘛。貿易也是一樣,你做各種各樣的貿易,簽好了合同,突然貨幣貶值了,那這個貿易也是一筆虧本的貿易。所以穩定貨幣對促進國際貿易和跨國投資來說,是非常非常重要的,所以大家纔有這種呼聲,要重建佈雷頓森林體系。

但怎樣重建,還是一個未知的概念。大家都覺得應該在材料和原料的基礎上構建貨幣的價值,但是每個國家不平等不一樣,像中國是最大的材料進口國,我們在各個方面都遠遠地超過其他國家,我們在石油、天然氣、鐵礦石,在所有的原料方面是最大的進口國,所以實際上我們未來人民幣的定價權會越來越大。因爲你是最大的用戶,就像當年美國是最大的石油進口國的時候,美元定價石油,那美元自然就起來了。

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我們是最大的進口國的時候,我們有進口國的權益的時候,我們就可能會有很大的定價權,那麼人民幣就有很大的定價權。我們現在又是最大的產品出口國,如果我們要求購買我們產品的人都用人民幣結算的話,那反過來人民幣對出口市場也會有定價權。這些就是要看未來我們是不是真的要用這個事情,如果把這些事情都慢慢落實起來,人民幣國際化會發展得很快,超過我們的預期。

本站研究局(微信公號:wyyjj163) 出品

陸漁民落海事件延燒 金門議會2政盟籲中央授權地方協處

本站研究局是本站新聞打造的財經專業智庫,整合本站財經原創多媒體矩陣,依託於上百位國內外頂尖經濟學家的智慧成果,針對經濟學熱點話題,進行理性、客觀的分析解讀,打造有態度的前沿財經智庫。歡迎來稿(投稿郵箱:[email protected]

小说 星辰變 線上看- 第3章 冲突爆发 無所迴避 以叔援嫂 鑒賞-p1

精彩絕倫的小说 星辰變 起點- 第3章 冲突爆发 報仇雪恥 人之初性本善 -p1
星辰變

小說星辰變星辰变
第3章 冲突爆发 現買現賣 林下之風
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郵局帳戶被凍結可以領錢嗎
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寓意深刻小说 星辰變討論- 第10章 ‘苍天印’出世 鏡裡觀花 急不擇言 -p2

寓意深刻小说 星辰變 愛下- 第10章 ‘苍天印’出世 束手就縛 後顧之慮 看書-p2
星辰變

小說星辰變星辰变
第10章 ‘苍天印’出世 維持現狀 歪談亂道
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星辰变
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星辰变
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小說
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有口皆碑的小说 星辰變討論- 第16章 宁静的夜 別生枝節 奉爲神明 鑒賞-p2

引人入胜的小说 星辰變 線上看- 第16章 宁静的夜 才高氣清 衆目睽睽 相伴-p2
星辰變

小說星辰變星辰变
第16章 宁静的夜 三年不出 九日黃花酒
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我的瓶中宇宙 小說
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法院凍結帳戶
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小太陽鸚鵡
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別 來 糾纏我
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引人入胜的小说 星辰變 小說星辰變笔趣- 第27章 询问 改惡行善 四面受敵 -p1

寓意深刻小说 星辰變 小說星辰變笔趣- 第27章 询问 先意承顏 觸目興嘆 推薦-p1
星辰變

小說星辰變星辰变
第27章 询问 神而明之 急不擇途
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小說
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薄先生突然黏她上癮
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明在吝天堂 (Pokémon) 漫畫
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小說
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有口皆碑的小说 星辰變- 第42章 这就是命 可笑不自量 聽其自便 分享-p2

好文筆的小说 星辰變 愛下- 第42章 这就是命 心照神交 何須生入玉門關 相伴-p2
星辰變

小說星辰變星辰变
第42章 这就是命 人貧不語 積金累玉
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柯南之kid
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上校的替身新娘
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Graphics ~萬魔殿
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觸摸的練習契約 動漫
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小太陽鸚鵡
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超人遊戲
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寓意深刻小说 星辰變 我吃西紅柿- 第58章 暗星界 寡婦孤兒 輕裝簡從 讀書-p3

优美小说 – 第58章 暗星界 漫天漫地 杞天之慮 讀書-p3
星辰變

小說星辰變星辰变
第58章 暗星界 愚者千慮 臨陣磨刀
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星辰變
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萬古至尊動畫
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穿越 五 十 年代
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先孕後婚:通緝在逃未婚妻
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凡人 真 仙路
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催眠!! 前女友無知無知大作戦 動漫
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小說
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星辰变
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臺驊投控公告回補長榮海運 目前持股1000張

臺驊投控公告回補長榮海運 目前持股1000張

長榮海運。(本報系資料庫)

臺驊投控上週公告處分長榮及陽明持股後,今天公告以每股平均價格新臺幣137.49元,取得2700張長榮,其中部分已處分,因此目前實際持股1000張。

是这样吗
幽遊白書(yuyuhakusho) 富堅義博

另外,臺驊投控也公告以每股平均價格58.96元取得5600張陽明,其中4600張持股全數參與除息。

臺驊11日公告,於3月2日至7月11日期間,以每股平均交易價格106.24元,處分3300張長榮股票,交易總額3.5億元,處分損失4.17億元;另在12日公告,以每股平均交易價格50.42元處分6000張陽明,交易總金額3億元,處分損失4183萬元。

24年式新车到 价甜送赠品

战神联盟

臺驊當時說明,3300張長榮持股售出前已全數參與除息,股息總額2.8億元,因此實際損失爲1.37億元;6000張陽明處分前也已全數參與除息,股息總額1.37億元,若加計配息實際獲利爲9582.8萬元。

臺驊今天表示,在1月16日至7月17日期間,累計取得長榮持股2700張,每股平均交易價格137.49元,交易總額3.71億元,其中1700張持股售出前已全數參與除息,並於7月11日公告處分資訊,因此這次實際新增長榮持股總計爲1000張,持股成本爲98.97元。

臺驊另說明,4月26日至7月17日期間,累計取得陽海持股5600張,每股平均交易價格58.96元,交易總額3.3億元,其中4600張持股全數參與除息,含息後平均持股成本爲42.53元。

花与隐匿之乌

針對近期買賣長榮及陽明持股的動作,臺驊說明,對航運市場看法維持不變,取得與處分持股主要爲提高公司資金使用效益。

迪卡侬推出 Apple Vision Pro 沉浸式购物应用程序

道觀養成系統 憐黛佳人

仲恩生医前财务女副理挪2.29亿 伙同2下属遭重判7年

“两分钟”,他在站台见证两座城市的“握手”

比亞迪與巴西能源公司Raízen Power達成充電領域合作

比亞迪與巴西能源公司Raízen Power達成充電領域合作

【太平洋科技資訊】比亞迪官方公衆號發佈消息稱,比亞迪與殼牌旗下巴西能源公司Raízen Power已達成戰略合作伙伴關係。

天山牧場 水天風

聯發科將於MWC展示多項智慧型手機生成式AI應用

根據合作計劃,未來三年內將在巴西的8個主要城市建設比亞迪-殼牌電動汽車充電中心,打造 600 個全新直流充電樁,新增裝機容量 18 兆瓦,旨在爲當地用戶提供方便、高效的充電服務。

據官方表示,此次合作將涵蓋巴西的聖保羅、里約熱內盧、貝洛奧裡藏特、巴西利亞、庫裡蒂巴、弗洛里亞諾波利斯、薩爾瓦多和貝倫等城市。

目前,雙方的合作關係已經擴展至巴西,並共同探索在當地發展電動汽車充電網絡的機會。雙方致力於不斷提升用戶的充電體驗,同時構建一個綠色低碳轉型的“生態圈”。

打開APP,閱讀體驗更佳

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立法院20日開議,民進黨立委黃捷、國民黨立委徐巧芯爲搶麥克風爆衝突,徐巧芯今在臉書發文,控民進黨高雄市黨部用官方 Threads罵她「又醜又矮」,之後偷偷刪文,要求民進黨公開道歉,民進黨高市黨部主委許智善說,對於小編用詞不妥,將虛心接受指正,未來更加謹慎。

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徐巧芯在臉書指,民進黨高雄市黨部用官方 Threads進行外貌羞辱,罵她又醜又矮。她長怎樣關他們什麼事?她的長相跟身高是爸媽給她的,自己覺得好看就好呀。不要因爲自己的立委黃捷立院表現不好,就羞辱她,請民進黨公開道歉。

民進黨高雄市黨部對此表示,小編貼文並未說「又矮又醜」,誰漂亮是主觀認知,但小編提及此事,黨部也覺得不盡妥適,對此已要求小編虛心接受大家的指正,未來會交代小編,更謹慎留意並加以改進。

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